Trump backs Musk on H-1B visas, boosting Indian tech hopes: Analysts

Industry experts have expressed optimism of easier H1-B processes and higher H1-B quotas working in favour of Indian IT firms even after tech magnate Elon Musk’s mixed signals on the H-1B visa program, calling it “broken” after US President-elect Donald Trump endorsed his previously positive outlook on the immigration visas for highly skilled workers.

The US High-Tech industry, which is working on new technologies like AI, Autonomous Vehicles, Smart and connected cities, cars, and Internet of Things (IoT), requires many knowledgeable and highly qualified engineers and scientists, said Vikas Gupta, smallcase Manager and CEO at Omniscience Capital.

“The US Defence and Security establishment understands that to maintain its global leadership in the future technologies it needs the best of the best. That need can be solved with legal immigration, whether temporary or permanent. Currently, H1-B visas are one of the main conduits for bringing highly qualified legal immigrants to the US. The US Education industry, too, benefits from this since most students who pay significant college fees and living expenses do so in the hopes of getting an H1-B visa to work in the US High-Tech industry,” he explained.

• Also read: Elon Musk reignites debate on H-1B visa programme, calls it ‘broken’ which needs to be reformed

There could be reforms in the green card regulations to favour highly qualified immigrants, along with other modifications in regulations to support students graduating from STEM fields and having advanced degrees, such as MS and PhD.

Over 300,000 Indian students in the US contribute more than $10 billion in annual revenues, with Indians contributing the largest in terms of international students, Gupta pointed out.

“Historically, the US has also benefited significantly from these students eventually contributing to the US economy. Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, and Arvind Krishna are some examples of the top CEOs who have used this route,” he added.

Aditya Narayan Mishra, MD & CEO of CIEL HR, also echoed this sentiment, stating the recent supportive stance on H-1B visas could signal a more optimistic outlook for Indian tech talent seeking opportunities in the U.S.

Indians currently represent the majority of H-1B visa holders, particularly in technology and IT-related roles, and any positive policy direction could strengthen the bridge between Indian talent and American innovation.

“This may boost career growth, exposure to global practices, and access to advanced technologies, improving visa processing, job security, and confidence in long-term career planning. Moreover, it could encourage U.S. companies to invest more in training and development for their Indian workforce. While policy statements are encouraging, we’re watching closely to see how this translates into actual implementation. The program has historically been crucial for both U.S. employers seeking specialised skills and Indian professionals looking to contribute to the American tech ecosystem,” he said.

• Also read: Donald Trump says he supports the H-1B visa programme, US immigration debate strengthens

According to the American Immigration Council, during US President Trump’s previous administration, the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) initially denied a larger percentage of H-1B petitions than in the preceding four years. However, a number of these denials were later overturned, with denial rates decreasing substantially during the latter half of FY20.

Data from USCIS showed that denial of new H-1B petitions for initial employment rose from 6 per cent in FY15, to 24 per cent in FY18, before dropping to 21 per cent in FY19, 13 per cent in FY2020, and 4 per cent in FY2021.

On the other hand, the immigration council pointed out that the denial rate for petitions for continuing employment was 2 per cent in both FY22 and FY21, down from 7 per cent in FY20, and 12 per cent in both FY18 and FY19.

• Also read: Biden admin makes it easier for US companies to hire foreign workers with H-1B visas

Mishra observed that from historic trends, H-1B approval rates can significantly fluctuate based on policy implementation. However, the current supportive stance could create a more welcoming environment for Indian students aspiring to work in the U.S., especially compared to the more restrictive approach during the previous term.

“Students are advised to focus on developing expertise in high-demand fields like technology, engineering, and education, as these sectors consistently seek specialised talent regardless of policy changes. While the outlook appears positive, success will still depend on individual merit and market demands in these specialised fields,” he said.